The first summer on record in which practically all of the sea ice in the Arctic melts could occur much earlier than previously expected. In a new study, scientists warn that the ever-increasing greenhouse emissions may bring us closer to an ice-free Arctic by the end of the decade.

The planet’s northernmost ocean could experience its first day free of ice as early as 2027, a new study has found. While the three-year possibility remains extreme, the study authors determined that this first pivotal day could occur within nine to 20 years after 2023,

Researchers have used computer models to forecast when the Arctic Ocean might experience its first ice-free day.