If a ban in the US is avoided, TikTok is forecast to earn $11.8bn in US ad revenue this year (up 21.0%, outpacing overall US social media ad investment, which is set to grow 10.6%), rising to $13.4bn in 2026. Instagram stands to benefit most from a TikTok ban, WARC Media estimates, with spend also going to YouTube and Snapchat.

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If you’ve been paying attention to what’s happening with TikTok, you might feel a little whiplash. One minute, TikTok is one of the fastest-growing e-commerce platforms in the U.S., reaching 175 million users. The next, it’s banned, unbanned, and, at press time, dangling in legal limbo.