Learn how prior probability informs economic theory and decision-making in Bayesian statistics. Understand its role before collecting new data.

Discover the base rate fallacy's impact on investing decisions. Learn how overlooking this cognitive bias can lead to financial misjudgments and market misconceptions.

Future events are far from certain in the business world. This is especially true for smaller businesses, which tend to have more volatility than larger organizations, or newer businesses without a ...

Probability has a popular meaning that is not the same as the mathematical meaning. As a small-business owner, you may act on hunches, guesses and instincts. After such actions, you might even say you ...

Stephen Woodcock does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond ...