A groundbreaking study, published in the September 2025 issue of the International Review of Economics & Finance, reveals that a surprisingly simple metric—the difference between current S&P 500 ...

Predictions are ubiquitous; they are water to a fish, swimming completely unaware of the troubling ripples all around. The art of prediction has been with us throughout history, even back to ancient ...

Prediction markets are having a moment. But what are they actually good for? Economist Robin Hanson has been thinking about this for decades. Long before betting markets went mainstream, he argued ...

Three books unpack our infatuation with prediction, and what we lose when we outsource this task to machines. To be human is, fundamentally, to be a forecaster. Occasionally a pretty good one. Trying ...